Saturday, January 10, 2015

North American 10 Meter Conditions for the Fall of 2014

The following charts are based upon 10-Meter PSK31 captures from North American participants using PropNET's proprietary software PNP.  Also worldwide PropNET participants that captured North American stations are also included.
If you want more information, visit the PropNET website at:

Happy Holidays,
As I said in my prior post, where have you been the past 13 weeks?

All I can say is that the predictors of Solar Cycle 24 were dead wrong.
You can predict all you want to, but it is really about being ready when things happen.
Things happened this Fall.

The highest levels of Solar Flux for Cycle 24 occurred during this Fall.  The cycle was to have peaked early this year.  No signs of that occurring yet.

Solar Flux for This Season:

13 weeks of the Fall are charted for 2011 through 2014.
In consecutive years Solar Flux averaged 145, 120, 151, and 159. 
Last year Solar Flux flatten out during the Fall season.
This year it rose steadily for the most part. 
One of the confusing facts of this cycle is a severe lack of geomagnetic storms.
This chart shows the Planetary A-Index since the prior cycle. The lack of storms is blamed on the mistiming in the switch of the Sun's magnetic poles.
For 10 of the 13 weeks of  Fall, 2014 exceeded 2013 volumes.
There were 150,000 captures this Fall compared to just under 120,000 last year.
Captures By Hour:
Once the Sun rose, captures were much higher this year.
The greatest growth was in the afternoon hours.
This chart represents breaking down each year's volume equally by percent.
This shows that our afternoon captures were improved.
My belief is that we are seeing the peak of the solar cycle now or that it still hasn't occurred. Most cycles are usually on the upswing 4 years, followed by 7 years of decline,
We are actually on a 6 year slow and progressive incline.  Let's hope it takes the same slow and gradual decline.

Make the time to enjoy what is left of this solar cycle.  It won't get much better than this.

From now on I will now only Blog for special events,
I do plan to begin analyzing Es propagation once we get into April.

73s and Happy New Years & DX
Art KA5DWI/7

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