Monday, September 11, 2017

10- Meter Sporadic Es Have Returned

A Review of the 2017 Spring/Summer Sporadic Es Season on the 10-Meter Amateur Radio Band

At the end of 2015, I wrote an analysis on the affects of Solar Cycle 24 on the Spring/Summer Sporadic Es season.  (http://ka5dwipropagation.blogspot.com/2016/01/how-solar-cycle-24-affected-10-meter.html) The lull between Cycles 23 and 24 was the longest in modern radio history. During those years (2005-2011), Es propagation was exceptional. In particular, there were many multiple-hop Es opportunities and on many occasions good openings would occur late into the night and into twilight.
By 2011, Solar Cycle 24 finally had taken off and it was apparent that it affected Es conditions. By the 2012 season, activity had declined sharply. As solar activity remained active and peaked twice, in continued hold down good Es propagation for several years.

This Solar Cycle (24) has been what I call anemic. It was one of the least active cycles since the early 1900’s and the lowest in radio’s history. It was foretold by Jim Kennedy, K6MIO/KH6 in 2011 at the Central States VHF Society Conference. The magnetic north and south poles of the Sun swap as part of a normal solar cycle. For Cycle 24, these poles were out of sync and to expect a low and poor peak of the Cycle. Jim was right on the money. There was no 2-Meter Aurora in the southern half of the U.S., and I know of no FAI reported on 2-Meters either. 6-Meter F2 was almost non-existent.  There was some 6-Meter Trans-Equatorial propagation, but nothing close to what was experienced during Solar Cycle 23.
  
What was unexpected to me was that Geomagnetic Activity continued to increase after the Cycle peaked. I am not a Physicist, but I believed this increased activity kept putting a lid on a return of Es after the first Solar Activity peak (11/11).  After a disappointing 2016, a few out there wondered if Es propagation was a thing of the past. There we some moments during that Spring and Summer that looked promising, but nothing lasted over a period of days.
Over the Fall and Winter of 2016 into 2017, solar activity started to drop like a rock and geomagnetic activity looked to be declining. I anxiously waited for an improvement. Es did not disappoint.
The end of Solar Cycle 23 and the beginning of Cycle 24 occurred in 2008. It took 6 years to peak, normally occurs in 4-5 years. By late 2011, F2 propagation became common place on 10-Meters during the Fall, Winter and early Spring,
  
Somewhat puzzling was the rise of geomagnetic activity (measured as Ap Index). Confusing was a decline in 2014, but understood as the peak of solar activity (solar flux & sunspot number). It was more active in 2015, peaked and remained active for 2016.

Notes for All PropNET Activity Charts
1.  All charts reflect all North American PropNET PSK31 captures on 10-Meters during the recognized Spring/Summer Sporadic Es season (58 days each side of the Summer Solstice). Other continent PropNET captures were removed unless it was an Es capture of/from a North American PropNET participant.
2.  All captures considered non-Es (F2, TEP, Ground Wave, or Scatter) were removed from this analysis.
3.  Any captures that were not verifiable by a legitimate Callsign or grid-square were also removed.
4.  All 10-Meter captures used occurred from UTC dates April 25 through August 15-18, approximately 8 weeks, plus a few days each side of the Summer Solstice (June 20-22).

So what has happened the past nine years to 10-Meter PropNET Es captures?
Once solar activity increased, Es propagation began a slow decline in 2010. Once solar activity took off, it dropped rapidly and reached its bottom in 2014 the peak of solar activity for Solar Cycle 24.  Recovery has been very slow and finally returned to much better levels this year. The increase was dramatic, just as the decrease between 2011 and 2012.

Hourly Activity Patterns over the Years

Each year is different somewhat, but activity generally shows a dual-peaked diurnal (daytime). The solar and geomagnetic active years (2012-2016) are quite distinguishable. 
The hourly chart is shown in Sunrise, to Sunset, to Evening, and into Twilight in order to better show peaks in activity.  In North America, the Sun rises on the East Coast during the 10th hour UTC, and sets on the West Coast around the 3rd hour UTC.  It is solar noon along the Mountain/Central time zone border at the 19th hour UTC.

Regardless of year or solar affects, Es activity soars once the Sun rises and peaks just after mid-morning. Most years, this is the best time for Es.  Activity declines as Noon passes, but peaks again a couple of hours before sunset.  Once the Sun sets, Es rapidly decline.

Dramatic Rise of 10-Meter Es in One Year – 2016 vs. 2017

The Sunspot Numbers and Solar Flux finally started to decline more rapidly in 2016 and again into 2017.  In fact, the rate of decline was much greater than what was experienced between Solar Cycles 23 & 24.  Geomagnetic activity was not declining at the same rate. I knew that the year would be better, but I just did not know how good it would improve.
A greater than 2½ increase in activity is something to not recognize. This was greatest change between years since the decline from 2011 & 2012.  The rate of growth for PropNET captures was far greater than Non-PropNET, an indication that the lack of conditions the past few years has run off many 10-Meter PSK31 operators.
Due to the lower total count, the number of hours active does not show the dramatic rise in activity. Note that the number of hours active increased from less than one-half of the day to two-thirds.  To put it in terms of the Spring/Summer Es season, in 2016 Es were confined to daylight an hour and a half after sunrise and before sunset. In 2017, it extended an hour before sunrise and an hour after sunset.

Intensity per Open Hour

I learned in my past analyses from 2005-2011 that as active hours increased, so did the intensity of that active hour.
There were near 600 more Es active hours in 2017 than 2016, with an average of 49 captures per active hour rather than 19.

Daily Activity

During the lean years and peak of Solar Cycle 24, it was extremely difficult to determine the beginning and end of the Spring/Summer Es season. At the traditional beginning (last week of April) and its end (middle of August), high solar activity had a strong affect. Between, it was difficult to determine the peak of the season (the week of the summer solstice).  By 2016, consistency in Es propagation seasonal daily patterns finally began.
By 2016 a more standard pattern of a typical season was evident and a polynomial trend line could be calculated. Despite the return to this pattern, there were a number of days in which little to no propagation occurred.

Note: The scale of this chart is 3 times greater than the 2016 graph.
Despite a slow start, each day of the entire season was greater than the prior. 

The polynomial trend line finally followed what had occurred in past good years. This was that the season actually does not end by mid-August. It actually ends at the end of August.

Active Hours for Es Propagation

In 2016, the influence of the Sun was still evident. The season started off well, but failed to be more intense towards the Summer Solstice. The end of the season turned out to be highly productive compared to the traditional peak (solstice).

In 2017, Es became much more productive. There were more numerous 24 hour active days and many over 20 hours. This had not been seen since 2011.

Cumulative 10 Meter Captures

The following charts closely display actually how many 10-Meter captures occurred each day of the season and at what rate.
For 2016, the average number of 10-Meter captures was 213 per day. The period from 6/12 through 6/24 saw higher rates. The remainder tended to fall short.
On the other hand, 2017 the average number of 10-Meter captures was 781 significantly higher. The most productive time began again on 6/12, but this year lasted until 7/9. The season ended very strongly as well.

Hourly Activity and Intensity

The following charts show total hourly activity for the 2016 & 2017 Es season through North America. They are displayed in sunrise, to sunset, to evening, to twilight order to best display the diurnal (daytime) pattern.

Regardless of year or point in the Solar Cycle, the dual-peaked diurnal in prevalent most years. 

Note: 2017 scale is 3 times larger than 2016. Each hour of the 2017 season was higher than 2016 and was very similar in pattern. 
There were 116 measured days in this analysis. In 2016, most of the daylight hours were open over 50% of the days.

In 2017, most of the daylight hours were open 75% of the days.

Distribution of PropNET Participants
Listed below is 99.5% of the North American 10-Meter PropNET catches.
Ratio
Rank
Call
Grid Sqr.
Captures
Captured
Total
Capt/Captd
1
WD4RBX
EM84NN
18623
5113
23736
3.64
2
KE4GWW
EM71HF
12111
10796
22907
1.12
3
VE3GTC
FN25IG
3185
17551
20736
0.18
4
W5LA
EM32VN
8043
11765
19808
0.68
5
W2EV
FN03XD
6342
11959
18301
0.53
6
KF9KV
EN52ET
6238
5956
12194
1.05
7
KD0IOM
EN41EX
6666
3633
10299
1.83
8
KD4IZ
FM19OO
5355
4042
9397
1.32
9
WB8ILI
EN82PQ
4375
4013
8388
1.09
10
KB1JDX
FN41BT
5401
1259
6660
4.29
11
NC5O
EM12PX
2274
4375
6649
0.52
12
KA5DWI
DM34UN
2683
1588
4271
1.69
13
NM4V
FM06QR
3248
56
3304
58.00
14
KI7J
DM42OF
321
1745
2066
0.18
15
KE6AJE
CM98AH
1227
623
1850
1.97
16
AD7LL
EM75ND
1319
492
1811
2.68
17
N6OA
EL99EP
1122
422
1544
2.66
18
ND6M
EM55TC
342
626
968
0.55
19
W6CGH
DM13BR
271
591
862
0.46
20
KF2AT
FN30AS
81
508
589
0.16
21
KC9NBV
EM69OE
406
131
537
3.10
22
K7EK
EM77AT
238
255
493
0.93
23
W7HD
DM42JI
205
103
308
1.99
24
KP3FT
FK68QA
80
127
207
0.63

The table shows that many of us out here on the west coast were lonely. Rich, WD4RBX has always been one of the best performers. It is not that the West Coast states have bad propagation; there was not much population of PropNET participants west of the Mississippi River.  We really need to improve this next year. I consistently had good 6-Meter propagation to the Central and Southern Plains, as well as the northern Rockies and Northwest. We just had very little and late participation out here on PropNET.
I concentrated on pointing at the PropNET population, and it resulted in me having an average PropNET capture length short of 1,900 kilometers almost 300 more than anyone else on the continent. 

                                          
Conclusion:
It really was a great year, the best since 2011. There were some bad days and at times elevated solar activity. I would expect another great year next season as solar activity continues to decrease. The recent (September 2017) surge in solar and geomagnetic activity was expected and should be short term. Do not think this recent surge has any real meaning. You might think of this as Cycle 24’s last gasp.

Es are back. I hope you got a chance to play. Thank you East Coast and you out here in the west need to put out a signal next year.

Active Days
The following days for this Spring/Summer Es Season had over 2,000 10M PropNET and Non-PropNET captures for the UTC day.

Note the concentration of signals east of the Mississippi River.
This was very common through the season. I thought this was a bit late in the season for a very active day. 

This was the most active of the entire season and I didn’t get to participate that day.

Another day in which the eastern half of the continent had most of the fun.

One of the better days out west.   Ou captures require more distance and double-hop. 

Later season activity.

Another light day out west.

Generally there is an outstanding day around this date. It was one of my most productive days.

Final Thoughts
Spring/Summer Sporadic Es are back.  Had we had a few more stations west of the Mississippi, no telling how active it would have been.

My philosophy and experience is Es beget Es. They show up on 10-Meters for a number of minutes, they appear on 6-Meters. Once strong and intensive on 6, there are good chances on 2-Meters.

I expect a few good years are ahead of us. Don’t miss it!
Please join us next year. A good time should be had. Expect more Trans-Atlantic and Trans-Pacific.
I enjoy doing this, but only if more of you participate. Lurking is participating too.

 Thanks again for reading and I hope it added to your understanding that this band (10-Meters) isn’t dead when the solar cycle drops.

73 Art Jackson KA5DWI/7 Arizona

Sunday, July 2, 2017

2017 FM Broadcast DX This Season

Fun year with a $17 SDR and an old antenna, plus an old Desktop.
I am having so much fun, I was ignoring 6-Meters.
RTL-SDR fed with a 44-year old Radio Shack Archer V/U/FM-125 Log Periodic (minus UHF Elements)
WIN7 Dell Desktop, SDRSharp Software
All Dates/Times UTC (AZT/PDT/MST Local -7 Hours)

93.3 KKNU Springfield/Eugene OR 5/21 RDS PICode Song titles to come later AJJ-AZ
92.1 KCOL Grove (Beaumont) TX 5/25
92.1 KTSR DeQuincy LA 5/25
92.3 KIIZ Killeen TX 5/25
92.5 KVPI Ville Platte LA 5/25
94.1 KQXY Beaumont TX 5/25
90.1 KPFT Houston TX 1700 5/26 Pacifica Radio
92.1 KMFC MO Centralia 1804 06/17 RDS ID AJJ-AZ
93.3 KMXV MO Kansas City 1808 06/17 RDS and regular ID AJJ-AZ
92.5 KJJY IA W.DesMoines 1840 06/17 RDS, ID and commercials. Very strong at times.AJJ-AZ
92.3 KEZO NE Omaha 1847 06/17 RDS, Commercials AJJ-AZ
92.1 KRLS IA Knoxville 1858 06/17 RDS AJJ-AZ
93.3 KIOA IA DesMoines 1902 06/17 RDS, commercials and awful 70's music (like Disco) AJJ-AZ
95.5 KGLI IA Sioux City 1917 06/17 Commercials referring Sioux City AJJ-AZ
94.9 WDKB IL DeKalb 1920 06/17 Assumed. Many commercials/events for Chicago IL AJJ-AZ
94.1 WEMX Kentwood (Baton Rouge) LA 2216 6/25 RDS Hip-Hop AJJ-AZ
92.1 KDQN Dequeen AR 2240 6/25 Local Commercial AJJ-AZ
92.5 KVLR Sunset Valley TX 2246 6/25 Another overpowered K-Love AJJ-AZ
93.7 KQBT Houston TX 2248 6/25 Local Commerical Bicycles AJJ-AZ
93.3 KKSP Little Rock AR 2326 6/25 The Fish RDS AJJ-AZ
92.5 KPPL Poplar Bluff MO 2330 6/25 St. Louis Cardinals Radio AJJ-AZ
92.1 KTBT Broken Arrow OK 1541 6/26 RDS ID AJJ-AZ
93.3 KIGL Seligman MO ..not AZ 1543 6/26 RDS, commerial AJJ-AZ
94.7 KTTS Springfield MO 1549 6/26 Very strong RDS over local Jack-FM AJJ-AZ
95.3 KINZ Humboldt KS 1551 6/26 ID as Z95-3 AJJ-AZ
94.9 KCMO Shaunee KS 1603 Very Strong RDS Old adult contemporary.AJJ-AZ
92.5 KTWB Sioux Falls SD 1749 6/26 RDS C/W music. AJJ-AZ
92.1 KORN Parkston SD 1756 6/26 Korn Country ID AJJ-AZ
93.7 KBRK Brookings SD 1808 6/26 RDS Adult contemporary AJJ-AZ
93.3 KJRV Wessington Springs SD 1812 6/26 Big Jim FM Classic rock Verified by Live Stream AJJ-AZ
93.1 KTYL Tyler TX 1650 6/30 ID East Texas' Mix 93.1 AJJ-AZ
92.1 KLIL Moreauville LA 1700 6/30 Local Ads AJJ-AZ
92.9 KTKC Springhill LA 1717 6/30 RDS AJJ-AZ
92.7 KISY Blossom TX 1720 6/30 Kiss FM Local commercials AJJ-AZ
92.1 KFXI Marlow OK 1729 6/30 RDS Foxy 92 Shortest Distance 809 miles AJJ-AZ
92.1 KDQN Dequeen AR 1732 6/30 Mixing with Foxy AJJ-AZ
93.3 KIGL Seligman MO 1739 6/30 RDS AJJ-AZ
93.3 KKSP Bryant AR 1740 6/30 RDS The Fish AJJ-AZ
105.1 KMJX Conway AR 1745 6/30 RDS The Wolf AJJ-AZ
105.7 KLAZ Hot Springs AR 1747 6/30 ID and commercial AJJ-AZ
106.1 KTGX Owasso OK 1755 6/30 ID The Twister AJJ-AZ
105.1 KOMG Williard MO 1759 6/30 RDS AJJ-AZ
106.3 KGOU Norman OK 1810 6/30 RDS NPR AJJ-AZ
106.3 KJBX Cash AR 1813 6/30 RDS ID Mix 106.3 AJJ-AZ
107.1 KCNY Greenbrier AR 1816 6/30 RDS AJJ-AZ
107.9 KEZA Fayetteville AR 1826 6/30 RDS and ID AJJ-AZ
107.5 KFEB Campbell MO 1839 6/30 Local commercials Longest distance 1,263 miles AJJ-AZ
107.5 KOSN Ketchum OK 1840 6/30 NPR Rebroadcast of KOSU AJJ-AZ
107.7 KSLZ St. Louis MO 1930+ 6/30 RDS Z107.7 AJJ-AZ
93.3 KPWK Seattle WA 2112 6/30 RDS AJJ-AZ
93.7 CJJR Vancouver BC 2115 6/30 RDS JR-FM AJJ-AZ
94.1 KMPS Seattle WA 2119 6/30 RDS AJJ-AZ
106.5 KWPZ Lynden WA 2123 6/30 RDS ID Praise 106.5 AJJ-AZ
106.5 KEGX Richland WA 2128 6/30 RDS Eagle 106.5 AJJ-AZ
94.7 KZAL Manson WA 2146 6/30 Local Commercials AJJ-AZ
94.9 KUOW Seattle WA 2149 6/30 ID NPR AJJ-AZ
104.1 KAFE Bellingham WA 2240 6/30 Local commercial AJJ-AZ
93.7 KSD St. Louis MO 0104 7/01 ID The Bull AJJ-AZ
92.5 KTWB Sioux Falls SD 0123 7/01 ID AJJ-AZ
99.9 KTCS Ft. Smith AR 0152 7/01 ID Country Lovin' AJJ-AZ
100.3 KDJE Jacksonville AR 0156 7/01 ID  AJJ-AZ
103.7 KYLK Okemah OK 0211 7/01 RDS ID K-Love AJJ-AZ
103.7 KABZ Little Rock AR 0215 7/01 ID The Buzz AJJ-AZ
93.3 CKSQ Stettler AB 0252 7/01 RDS ID Real Country AJJ-AZ
92.7 KVCK Wolf Point MT 0303 7/01 ID AJJ-AZ
94.1 CIMG Swift Current SK 0314 7/01 ID Local commercial AJJ-AZ

FMBC Es took about a month off and returned in earnest on 7/28 for 3 days off and on.
94.1  KRNA Iowa City IA 1955 7/28 Local commercial Tnx BRinAZ AJJ-AZ
93.5  KMYK Osage Beach MO 1807 7/30 ID Online Playlist 93 5 Rocks AJJ-AZ
92.9  KOSP Osark MO 1822 7/30 Local commercials AJJ-AZ
93.1  KZLE Batesville AR 1825 7/30 ID AJJ-AZ
94.7  KTTS Springfield MO 1833 7/30 RDS Country AJJ-AZ
93.3  KRKL Walla Walla WA 1900 7/30 ID RDS K-Love AJJ-AZ
94.9  KIOK Richland WA 1913 7/30 RDS The Wolf AJJ-AZ
93.7  KQFM Hermiston OR 1923 7/30 Local commercial @ 5KW AJJ-AZ
92.3  KIZN Boise ID 1933 7/30 ID RDS Local commercials Kissin' Country AJJ-AZ
92.1  KUMA Pilot Rock OR 1940 7/30 ID 92.1 Party FM AJJ-AZ
93.1  KTIK New Plymouth ID 2000 7/30 ID RDS The Ticket AJJ-AZ
92.1  KCRK Colville WA 2004 7/30 RDS Mariners Baseball AJJ-AZ
94.5  KHTQ Hayden ID 2012 7/30 ID RDS Commercials for Spokane WA Rock 94 1/2 AJJ-AZ
93.5  XHQC Saltillo COAH 1732 8/04 RDS PICode Stereo Saltillo AJJ-AZ 

Map of my FMBC Es as of August 9 this season.

SDR Sharp screen prints on prior post.
73 Art

Saturday, June 17, 2017

Having Fun Even If 2-Meters Won't Open

Good afternoon,
Unfortunately due to personal issues, I was unable to play in the ARRL June VHF Contest.
So I am trying to make up for lost time and play a little this weekend (June 17 & 18).

Since analog TV is a thing of the past, I am now relying om FM Broadcast DXing to determine that Es are building towards 2 Meters.
I didn't want to spend the bucks on a HD FM Receiver that had RDS capabilities, nor did I want to run out to the car that had RDS.

Last August just as the season was ending I purchased for 17 bucks a RTL-SDR. I plugged it into a WIN7 computer and one of 2 outdoor FM antennas.
This is fun !!!!!

Some screen prints of what Es openings look like.
Most of the stations are from Iowa, Nebraska and one Illinois.  Patiently wait for a build up and a RDS ID appears, or listen for the Call or local Ads.

Enjoy Art KA5DWI/7 DM34 Central AZ

 92.5 and 92.9 are semi-local. 92.5 is easily overwhelmed by another station on Es.
 As Es build, it lights up like a Xmas Tree.

 KIOA Des Moines IA was booming in with awful 70's music.

93.9 & 95.1 are semi-local. This 94.9 MHz station was running ads for Chicago IL. We think DeKalb WDKB. No RDS.

June 25 Update:

Another nice opening. Many occasions of stations battling for a frequency. It made it harder to ID, but lots of fun.

Big Day June 30:
The Independence Day Holiday is always known to be a great period for VHF Es Propagation (lots of Tropo too). Friday morning, afternoon and evening did not disappoint.
I have been having fun monitoring and working Sporadic Es from High-end HF, VHF, FM Broadcast, Old Analog TV Channels 2-7 and the 2-Meter Ham Band.
When I lived near Fort Worth, Texas, I worked on 2 Meter SSB (144 MHz), South Florida, New Hampshire, along the Canadian/U.S. border, Oregon and down to Baja California.  I have had the pleasure of experiencing many fabulous events. Friday was one of those special days. I strongly believed that it was enhanced by the arrival of a solar disturbance. Before it hit, we had some outstanding conditions. Here in Arizona, I did make a few contacts to Oregon, Washington and Oklahoma on 2-Meter SSB, but I had the best time logging FM Broadcast stations. I never had the experience doing this and it was lots of fun.

36 FM Broadcast Stations Logged.
Logged Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Texas, Washington, British Columbia, Washington, South Dakota, Alberta, Montana and Saskatchewan.
Average Distance: 1063 miles, Median Distance: 1052 miles, Longest: 1263 miles, Shortest: 809 miles.

First time I had seen intense Es at the High End.




Highly intense Es.
I did work 2 Meter SSB to Washington, Oregon and Oklahoma.

73 Art KA5DWI/7