Wednesday, March 2, 2022

Solar Cycle 25 is Off to a Great Start

Happiness is in our future.
If you are a fan of the Upper Bands (15 Meters to 6 Meters), it is looking promising for the next few years. 

Again, I look at things mathematically, not scientific. Those of you that have any grasp of reality know that in physics and science that trends will follow distinctive mathematical patterns (called Trendlines).

There were clear indications that Cycle 24 was going to be poor. The actual cause was that the Sun's Magnetic North and South Poles that traverse its Equator each Cycle were out of sync. The amplitude (gap between the poles) were also much less than previous cycles. In addition, both the rates of decline for Cycle 23 and rate of the rise for Cycle 24 were painfully low. 

When I measured the decline of Cycle 24, it was looking better. Its rate of decline was much higher. My review of past Solar Cycles showed that a higher rate of decline resulted in a high rate of increase for the next Cycle.

So here is the good news.
We are now into the 29th month of Solar Cycle 25. The rise of this Cycle's 10.7cm Solar Flux Trendline is showing a rise of 5.4 units each month. At the same period of Cycle 24, it was rising only 0.2 units. The Trendline's monthly rate of growth is increasing 0.5 units each month (currently 5.4), therefore it could be close to 6 units for March 2022.
The rate of increase is not as good as Cycle 23, but still remain very good. I think we are in for a great Cycle to enjoy for years to come. Most cycles increase for 4 years, decrease for 7. 

The Chart:

This Chart is now for 28 Months past Solar Minimum and have added Cycle 23.

I still want to see 6-Meter F2 one day 😀 It is looking good.

73 Art K7DWI