Solar Cycle 25. I Was Wrong!!

Happy Meteorological Fall,

I hope everyone had a great Summer. It wasn't as hot this year here in North Central Texas. We had to endure about 20 days between 100 and 105.  Last year we had about 30 days from 105 to 110.  I don't handle heat in my older age, so I looked for opportunities to stay cool in the A/C by having fun on the radios.

This Summer we were blessed (or cursed depending on how you see it) with the most Solar Activity in 20-22 years. By August, we saw the highest Solar Activity in 33 years. We saw an almost daily M-Class Solar Flare, some days multiple ones. X-Class flares did occur, but were never overly powerful as had occurred 22-24 years prior. Rather than some VHF Aurora, there were way too many radio blackouts and a healthy decline in Sporadic Es. There was still Es, just not consistent. On the other hand, there were many times that 20 Meters was open all night and 15 Meters was open as late as Midnight.

During the Summer, F2 MUF declines. When there is high solar activity, 20 Meters is the highest frequency in which can be open all night. Long distant propagation on 15, 10 and even 6 Meters will only be dependent on solar events like flares and Coronal Mass Ejections (CME).  Sporadic Es still occur, but are highly erratic in their appearance. On VHF there is a phenomena that appears called FAI (Field Aligned Irregularities), but had been non-existent for over 20 years. Solar Cycle 24 was lousy.

What Has Happened

The last time I posted, it appeared that the Solar Cycle had peaked. Despite the trends indicating it had, in addition to the actions of past Solar Cycles (4 years incline, 7 years decline) there was a good possibility the Cycle was done. So I thought ......

I am an optimus. The past three Solar Cycles had dual peaks. I was hopeful that the same would occur for this one. What it appears is that the second peak is MUCH better.

Almost as soon as I posted last January, the Solar activity began to increase again. Once we got into the Summer, it has really taken off.

Solar Cycle Trends

The graph displays the monthly observed 10.7 cm Solar Flux since the accepted month that the Solar Cycle began.
Blue line is the current Cycle (25).
Red line is the past Cycle (24).
Green line is Cycle 23.
A polynomial trendline (line of best fit) to an odd power (3) is used to show an increase correlation for those events. The graphs shows 57 months in the Cycles.

The trendlines of both Solar Cycles 23 and 24 have shown that their decline had begun on or about 48  months. For the current Cycle although monthly values had begun a decline at 45 months, by the 53rd month it rapidly increased.  It has not slowed down since.

The August 2024 monthly value was the highest since February 1991 (Solar Cycle 22). It has exceeded all monthly values experienced in Cycles 23 and 24.

6-Month Moving Average

A six-month moving average also shows what is happening in the immediate versus what has happened overall.

The moving average for this Cycle shows that it has approached a level close to what was experienced during the Cycle 23 peak. Obviously, this Cycle has far exceeded the past Solar Cycle (24) and what was predicted for this one.

What to Expect

Summer has ended. Fall begins. The F2 MUF will gradually rise each week and peak around the Winter Solstice. If Solar activity remains close to current values we should see exciting conditions from 15 Meters all the way up to 6 Meters.

The graph displays the potential F2 MUF for an optimum single hop reflection for a Solar Flux level of 190. The Earth has experienced levels far in excess for many weeks this Summer.

It's time to take advantage. This Solar Cycle has been unpredictable and for us in the Northern Hemisphere not very timely.  Don't waste it this Winter.

73 Art K7DWI/5 

Solar Cycle 25 Was Off to a Great Start - It May Have Peaked

Happy Holidays

My journey back to my home state of Texas has been a challenge, but on the Hamming side it has been much better than expected. 

When I retired in 2014 and moved to Arizona, by the time I put up the tower the peak of Solar Cycle 24 had occurred. My entire tenure in Arizona was productive. I managed to work a lot of DX, was 3 entities short of a Worked-All-States Triple Play, over 40 States on the standard HF Bands plus 6-Meters. As my time in Arizona passed, the Solar Cycle quickly ended. 

Solar Cycle 24 was a large disappointment, but was predicted and warned early by Astrophysicist Jim Kennedy, K6MIO. The magnetic poles of the Sun were out of sync and would lead to much lower Solar activity. Sadly, he was very correct. For my sake, I am glad I was inactive for most of the peak and did get to work some DX on the higher HF bands. I did not hear or decode any F2 on 6-Meters, nor experienced any Auroral activity in Arizona as well.

In 2019, the XYL and I decided we would have another change of scenery and moved to the Rouge Valley of Southern Oregon. The timing was good. By then Cycle 24 was ending and Cycle 25 was beginning.  Predictions seemed to be dire that Cycle 25 would be like Cycle 24. I thought I would compare the data between the last 3 Solar Cycles to see if a pattern would draw a different conclusion.

I charted the decline of the past 3 Solar Cycles to determine any identifying factors.

The purpose of the Exponential Trend-Line was to determine when Solar Flux data showed that a 65 level was achieved. Exponential is used for single directional measurements (Up or Down). The rate of decline is expressed by the Root value of "x" (x to the power of).

The first item I noted was the very slow decline of Solar Cycle 23.  The decline of Cycle 23 lasted between 14-17 months longer than the declines of Cycles 24 and 22. Due to the fact that conditions prior to the peak of Cycle 24 showed the inevitable (23), would a similar rate of increase show another inactive Solar Cycle. The decline of Cycle 24 was indeed faster than Cycle 23 despite declining from a lower peak value.

Past Solar Cycle Patterns:

The accepted period of a normal Solar Cycle is 11 years. Generally the Cycle increases (Sunspot #s, Solar Flux) for 4 years. It then declines for 7 more years. Generally any cycle will not follow the pattern of the prior one. Predictions are difficult and rarely correct. So my challenge was to come up with my own assessment for Cycle 25. I knew the Magnetic poles were still not in sync, but how bad for the new Cycle. Early indication was it wasn't as extreme as what was observed 11 years before.

Once the Smoothed Solar Flux indices identified the bottom of Cycle 24 (13 months) thus the beginning of Cycle 25, I started to measure the monthly trend of the new and past 2 Solar Cycles.

Within 18 months of the new Cycle, there was evidence that the new Cycle (25) was going to be better than the prior one (24). Within 2 years it was a definite trend that Cycle 25 would be better. It still appeared that it would not be as good as Cycle 23, but definitely much better than what was predicted. 

By 3 years, this new Cycle (25) was close to matching the rise of Cycle 23. I was confident that I would see some Trans-Equatorial (TE) as well as F2 on 6 Meters (both missing in Cycle 24).

Now The Bad News:

For a number of months after the 3rd year, the rate of growth and Solar Flux level ran very close to the one for Cycle 23. During January and February of 2023, Solar activity had well exceeded Cycle 24 levels and was running even with Cycle 23 .............. then it crashed. It has recovered some and the trendline has flattened out into the 49th month.

No telling where we go from here, but a second peak is more probable than possible. The last 2 Solar Cycles had dual peaks. I do think it will not get significantly higher, but much much better than Cycle 24 ever was (20 or so Solar Flux units).  We should expect good conditions and activity for at least 3 to 4 years.

Enjoy it while you can.

I will update this Blog in a few months.

73 Art K7DWI/5

 

So How Was Your Summer?

My first post in a year and a half. A lot has happened since then.
I moved from Southern Oregon back to my home state of Texas. I now live 46 miles southwest of where I lived before I retired and moved west.

Finally, after 53 days over 100 degrees and half being over 105, I think Summer might be coming to an end here in North Texas. After the Summer of 2011 I swore I had had enough of this heat. When I retired 9 years ago, I really wanted to leave this state. We made the upper desert of Arizona home for 5 years. Put up and vastly improved my station (antennas, feedlines and a new rig) and made around 5,000 QSOs. WSJT-X was taking over the Ham World and I was having to adjust my operating habits.

In 2019, our daughter returned to Texas and we then decided to move to Southern Oregon. I left behind a lot of old antenna stuff for recycle, but kept the good stuff in hopes that I would put it back up in Oregon. A little birdy told me it wouldn’t go back up. I managed to put up a scaled down version of what I had in Arizona. DXing wasn’t easy due to a hill and mountain to my north and east, but working Japan on 6 Meters on two occasions removed a major Bucket List item. A new rig helped me focus on more than one Band at a time in the new Digital world.

After 3 years, we decided to end our western journey and return to Texas. The loss was that all of my fixed station antennas, masts and the tower were sold or went to scrap. About 30-50 years of my prized collections became history. I kept all my antennas that could be used in Mobile or Portable operations. All the rigs, feedlines and most accessories went back to Texas with me.

Last December after a couple of months with our daughter, we moved to a nearby rental house.  I put up an Outreach Vertical on an old Fan Stand and my Dual Band 2M/70CM Yagi on a Camera Stand and managed to make a fair number of QSOs on CW, FT8/4, RTTY and PSK31. I worked more Europeans in 30 minutes than I did in 3 years in Oregon. In March, I pulled the plug and moved into a new home in a HOA infested 55+ community SW of Ft. Worth. Once I got the Cable Pass-Thru's finished, I put up the Outreach back up, the Dual Band Yagi on a Speaker Stand and for 6 Meters a Squalo on another Speaker Stand. On June 10, I started back up adding to the totals I had back from 1978-2013. 

During my trek out west, I had loaded or manually entered all of my logged QSOs in Texas into LogBook Of The World. I was a bad QSLer for a number of years. Luckily I had kept all of my logbooks and had printed or placed on computers about all of the logs from Contests I had played in. It took almost 5 years with major eye issues to key and load it in, 17,000 Texan QSOs are out there along with 9,000 ones from my western excursion. If you don't LOTW, my complete logs from Arizona and Oregon are also on eQSL. In addition, I check any entries from Texas before 2014 on eQSL and verify them on LOTW as well. 

I officially became radio active on June 10, 2023 in what I figured would be a little challenging. I figured I would make do with with a very modest set-up. My first incident was that my TS-2000 Rig-Computer Interface didn't function after 3 moves. I guess Dell's Plug and Play, plugs and kills. The old RASCAL served me well. An emergency order for a SignaLink was placed. At least the 2000 went to SKCC WES CW duty and maybe some 2-Meter SSB.  I would set my FT-891 at 30 watts out for some 6 Meter action in the June VHF Contest for all modes. A 6-Meter Squalo on a 7-foot speaker stand should be a challenge I thought. Wrong!

I have always been a fan of working Sporadic Es. While in Oregon the hills and mountains that surrounded a good portion of my home were a hinderance. Most of my U.S. openings were in a 45 degree path to my ESE to SSW. My clear paths to the horizon were westward. I worked more Alaska, Hawaii and Asia on Es than I did the Midwest U.S.  The VHF Contest began and I started battling it out with the Big Guns.

I was shocked. I made 76 total QSOs into 40 or so Grid Squares on all 3 Modes (SSB, CW & FT8/4). I was very please to do some CW. That will always be my preferred mode on CW since most of the 6-Meter DXCC numbers I have were on CW. The results are modest, but this on just 30 Watts into a Squalo was not expected. I just about worked everybody I heard or decoded (FT8/FT4). I really don't care for FT8/FT4 Contesting, but it is what it is. 

The Yaesu FT-891 with a SignaLink is as perfect a team member you can ask for. It's hooked up to a low-profile (office) used HP Desktop I picked up for $100 and also a Celeron Laptop the XYL had killed the keyboard. The PC's are is totally dedicated to Hamming, logging and LOTW/eQSL maintenance. It provides your old computers a new life and use. I now have 4 laptops available for use and any 2 one them have a Rig-Computer interface.

I received a new Signalink and it was immediately put to use on the TS-2000. I decided its primary function would be on the HF Bands for all modes and for 2-Meters if anything developed. The Yaesu FT-891 was to be dedicated to 6-Meters. I operated CW whenever I could find an event such as Field Day or the SKCC WES and a CWT here and there. Other than that, it was mostly FT8. FT4, RTTY and PSK31. I rarely picked up the microphone except for checking in to a couple of 2-Meter SSB Nets.

HF Bands 40-10M:

For the HF Bands, I repeated what I did last Winter at the rental property. I put up an Outreach 160-10 Meter Vertical on an old Fan Stand that I took with me from Oregon (minus the fan). It is a versatile antenna that you place a banana plug jumper for the band you wish to work. It is fed with a low-loss RG-8X. The antenna was not grounded due to the severe Heat this summer with no rain. It did have 4 ribbon cable ground wires measured for 20 through 10 Meters. Typically I rain 90 watts on SSB, 75 watts on CW, 60 watts on RTTY and 25-35 watts on FT8/FT4/PSK31.

We were blessed with lots of great Solar Activity and I managed to work some nice DX on the higher bands (20-10 Meters). 40 Meters was a little tough and understood with the lack of grounding, although I did work Europe a couple of times. Overall, when a CW event took place I worked CW (SKC WES, Field Day, CWT Sprints). Only a very few SSB QSO's and a nice mixture of PSK31, RTTY and FT8/FT4. There were no 100 Grid Counts, most near 70. 20 Meters had the most QSOs, followed by 15 and 10 Meters. 10 Meters was not as good as I thought it would be because 6 Meters was excellent. In the the PropNET days, I had noted the 10 Meter Sporadic Es propagation was much less in active solar cycle years. As August ended the higher bands were getting much more crowded and it was tougher making QSOs. The narrow band width for FT8 has made me do more FT4 and/or find a quieter band. I still believe there should be a Power limit on WSJT FTn modes and expand the band plans.

Results HF Bands 6/10-8/31/2023:
QSOs - 431 Total, 20M 193, 15M 133, 10M 76
Grid Squares - 20M 67, 15M 58, 10M 41
QSLs - 235 Total, 55% QSL Rate

6-Meters:

I was pleasantly surprised how well 6-Meters was this Summer. I expected to make a few QSOs when conditions were very good. I really had no idea that at least FT8 signals at the noise level (-15) would be worked most times. My policy is to never CQ except when I am trying to alert others (DX) the band is open. I avoided duplicating an earlier QSO. I spent a lot of time searching for new Grid Squares for the season. I was hoping to work a VUCC, but did not expect it. Boy, was I surprised.

Results 6-Meters 6/10 - 8/31/2023:
QSOs - 210 Total, 145 FT8/FT4
Grid Squares - Worked 142
DXCC - W, XE, CO, VE, V3, PJ4
QSLs - 167 Total, Grid Sq's 122, DXCC All, 80% LOTW QSL Rate

It was the most productive year for me since 2008, and might have been since 1987 the year of the World's Greatest Es Opening. On LOTW, it was the largest seasonal number of Grid Square QSLd. All done with 25-35 Watts out into a Squalo at 7 feet. Funny also is that it is fed with around 60 feet of old RG-8X.

2-Meters:

I am not a fan of FT8 on 2-Meters. The transmissions for that mode are too long for Sporadic Es. Whenever Es are on 2-Meters, most of the time it is like Meteor Scatter. Quick sequences work best. FT4 I believe has a better chance, but everyone is a bit FT8 crazy. I did not hear a single voice for the two VHF Contests. I gave in and handed out a few points in the VHF Contests. On 7/20 I was treated to my first 2-Meter Es opening in 6 years when I worked Ontario and Georgia on FT8. I also decoded signals from Virginia and Connecticut. I was running 40 watts into a Dual-Band 5-Element Yagi (Cushcraft A270-10) on a 7-foot high speaker stand. Keeping up with other FT8 users, all but one has QSLd.

Recap:

It was a fun Summer. I was pleased with the results despite no longer having much of a antenna system, nor power. I enjoy squeezing blood out of a turnip. As FT8 gets busier in the peaking of the Solar Cycle, I will be doing much more CW than fighting the crowds. I also see more FT4 in my future when FT8 becomes too much. I will be adding some antenna alternatives as time permits.

I no longer care to collect Wallpaper. The only ones that would see them is me. At my age, my legacy is making sure my logs are loaded into LOTW, eQSL and will be loading QRZ soon. I am having fun combining my QSL cards and LOTW to see what the counts are doing. Luckily I came back close to where I left and my favorite Award, VUCC counts will increase. I doubt I will ever acquire Fred Fish, but it would be nice to get closer.  I also want more flavors of Worked All States and DXCC.

QSLs LOTW and Cards Combined:
QSL Data:
VUCC Grid Squares QSLd - 6M 349, 2M 142, 70CM 28
WAS - Mixed, CW
Almost WAS - 49 Phone, 48 Digital, 40 80M, 49 40M, 48 20M, 40 15M, 48 10M, 47 6M, 39 2M

Have fun. Enjoy the Bands

73 Art K7DWI ex-KA5DWI in N. Texas EM12ck

 

Solar Cycle 25 is Off to a Great Start

Happiness is in our future.
If you are a fan of the Upper Bands (15 Meters to 6 Meters), it is looking promising for the next few years. 

Again, I look at things mathematically, not scientific. Those of you that have any grasp of reality know that in physics and science that trends will follow distinctive mathematical patterns (called Trendlines).

There were clear indications that Cycle 24 was going to be poor. The actual cause was that the Sun's Magnetic North and South Poles that traverse its Equator each Cycle were out of sync. The amplitude (gap between the poles) were also much less than previous cycles. In addition, both the rates of decline for Cycle 23 and rate of the rise for Cycle 24 were painfully low. 

When I measured the decline of Cycle 24, it was looking better. Its rate of decline was much higher. My review of past Solar Cycles showed that a higher rate of decline resulted in a high rate of increase for the next Cycle.

So here is the good news.
We are now into the 29th month of Solar Cycle 25. The rise of this Cycle's 10.7cm Solar Flux Trendline is showing a rise of 5.4 units each month. At the same period of Cycle 24, it was rising only 0.2 units. The Trendline's monthly rate of growth is increasing 0.5 units each month (currently 5.4), therefore it could be close to 6 units for March 2022.
The rate of increase is not as good as Cycle 23, but still remain very good. I think we are in for a great Cycle to enjoy for years to come. Most cycles increase for 4 years, decrease for 7. 

The Chart:

This Chart is now for 28 Months past Solar Minimum and have added Cycle 23.

I still want to see 6-Meter F2 one day 😀 It is looking good.

73 Art K7DWI

PowerPoint Presentation on 10-Meter Sporadic Es

Hi Everybody,
Been a long time since I have posted.

I have now completed and placed on YouTube a PowerPoint Presentation on 10-Meter Sporadic Es, that was based on the 7-Year Study I did with the participation of PropNET.org.

Link:
https://youtu.be/XCZFmQchTxI

Enjoy. I hope you learn from my love of this mode of propagation.
It will be a busy for me personally, but am hoping to be on as often as I can.

73 Art K7DWI

Changed the Call, now K7DWI

After living in the 7th Call area for 5 years and being doubtful I would return to the 5th Call Area, I figured it was time to change the call.
I now live in Grants Pass Oregon after 5 years in central Arizona near Prescott.
I had a good time and some good DX in Arizona, but didn't want to confuse anyone anymore. So I figured 40 years with the same long call was enough time.
I am now K7DWI. Luckily no one else beat me to it like what happened in Texas 😀.
I hope to be back on the air soon. A little age and more carelessness has delayed the return.
I will be back.... 73 Art

2 Years of Monitoring FM Broadcast Es to Prepare for 2-Meter Band Openings

After my first full-time year (2017) doing this activity, it was so much fun I decided to continue it for 2018.
During the late Winter and early Spring of 2018, I decided it was time to retire my 44-year old. trusty, reliable and somewhat bent up Radio Shack (Archer) VUF-125 Log-Periodic with sawed off UHF elements. In the early spring, a major vendor of TV/FM/Cable equipment put on sale a long-range, light-weight VHF/FMBC/UHF antenna for an almost too good to be true price.  So, I bought one.

From Solid Signal: HD8200XL. Cushcraft 2M/70CM Yagi and Ringo Ranger 2 above it.

Since its predecessor was for VHF only, I quickly learned after putting it up that the feedline (RG59) needed to be replaced.  The feed-line had been used for cable runs and had been in the attic for probably at least 20 years. The antenna wasn’t picking up UHF channels very well, so a new run of RG6 replaced it. Much better.

For this 2-Year analysis in 2017, I captured 81 FM Broadcast stations during the Spring/Summer Es Season (April 26 – August 16, 8 weeks prior to & after the Summer Solstice).  For the same period in 2018, I captured 108 stations. A little experience, no 2-Meter Es openings and the change in antenna and feed line helped my 2018 results.

Operating practices and procedures:

1. My receiver was a RTL-SDR USB connected to a Windows 7 Dell Optiplex Desktop (exception 2 captures in 2018 from the car)
2. No recording was done with the RTL-SDR (issues and not reliable).
3. If Ham bands (10, 6 and/or 2-Meters) were experiencing excellent conditions, focus was on them, not FMBC. For the most part, if Es were occurring I tried to monitor FMBC.
4. I made the mistake of using the same computer for the RTL-SDR and an interface to one my Ham Radio rigs. I could not operate both at the same time. I will not do that next year.
5.  All stations captured were identified by full call letters, reference to location, slogans, local oriented commercials, RDS and/or PiCodes (Radio Broadcast Data System Program Identification Codes).
6. Resources used were an April 2018 FCC Database downloaded, filtered and modified from an Excel spreadsheet developed by Bob Colyard (founder of DXWorld that passed away last Spring), the Searchable Online Directory provided by Worldwide TV FM DX Association, FM Fool and Radio-Locator.com.
7. MUF (Maximum Usable Frequency) measurements from the G7RAU Website or his rauMUF software, in addition to SE-PROP by K9SE.

Purpose of the Analysis:

I remind everyone that I am a Ham first. This is a sideline activity, but something I enjoy doing.  I have been an AM/MW/Shortwave listener for over 55 years, VHF/FMBC/TV DX’er for over 45 years (don’t admit a CB’er too for that long), and a Ham for almost 40 years. I earned VUCC’s (100 Maidenhead Grid Squares) on 6 and 2 Meters in 1988. While in Texas, I worked 43 states on 2-Meters and over 200 Grid Squares terrestrial and all on Single Sideband or CW, plus a North American DX record on Tropo.  On 6 Meters, I worked over 60 DXCC entities and well over 550 Grid Squares.  In my over 35 years DX’ing on 2-Meters, I found that identifying VHF TV stations on Channel 6 and FM Broadcast in many cases led to 2-Meter openings to the same general locations of identified broadcast outlets.

I concur that there are better ways, better devices, and better software to do this. They cost a lot more and I am cheap. I enjoy squeezing blood out of a turnip. I prefer getting a lot out of a little. I found this activity to be fun and effective.

Areas Captured:
The map shows Maidenhead Grid Squares captured during the past 2 years. Several single squares were heard multiple times, especially near metropolitan areas, but was surprised by the large number of smaller towns copied. The plots are to the center point of the grid square heard, not the actual point. 

I have captured 94 grid squares the past 2 Es seasons (51 in 2017 & 78 in 2018). For 2018, I had more DX from Mexico, Louisiana, and Mississippi.

What Frequencies Were Monitored Most:
A surprise on these results. Although the distribution for the 2 years were somewhat different each year, the average and median frequencies were about the same for both years.
The average frequency captured was 95.8 MHz, the median was 93.3 MHz. 

My first year I spent my time watching Es build from the commercial low end of the band where RDS and PiCodes were prevalent. 

 In 2018, I experienced better RDS/PiCodes on the low end. I still focused on low end commercial stations beginning at 92.1 MHz.

Distances for FM Broadcast Es

In 2017, a simple 7 segment Histogram showed a close evenly distributed bell curve. The average distance of a captured FMBC station was 1,045.8 miles, the median was 1,040.  For 2018, the average capture was 1,077 miles with a median of 1,080. The trend for 2018 was slightly further captures, fewer short and more longer ones.

Maximum Useable Frequency

The normal characteristic of Es propagation is that as the patches (clouds) intensify, the result is that higher frequencies reflect. All MUF measurements are based on software developed by Dave Edwards G7RAU and Jim Loop K9SE.

In 2017, there was a smooth decline in captures as MUF increased. This was expected.
I was always looking at the low end of the broadcast band looking for the first indications of Es, then moving up the band as it was evident that it was intensifying.

In 2018, more openings towards Mexico commercial stations with RDS and PiCodes which further allowed me to identify them. Overall, fewer MUF’s above 115 MHz.
For 2 years they measured MUF for all captures was 101.6 MHz (+/- 0.6 for 2 years) and the median 99.9 MHz (almost no change both years).

Distance and its Relationship to Maximum Useable Frequency
Since I had a fair sampling of FMBC captures, I could do a sampling of these to see if a trendline could be determined.

Indeed a Trendline was identified. The trend was the shorter the distance, the higher the MUF. In addition, after 2 years, there appeared to be what I would call a “Sweet Spot”, a cluster of distance and MUF. The “Sweet Spot” is 1,000 miles and equates to an approximate MUF of 100 MHz.
Once 900-mile distances appear, MUF increases significantly. In 2018, although a higher MUF was experienced it did not equate to a 2-Meter opening (Pacific Ocean).

Conclusions and Ideas:

I did not experience any 2-Meter Es this season. I only heard a couple of short bursts to my east. That was unexpected and disappointing. There was only one very high MUF event that I could determine, and it was out to the Pacific Ocean. 

So, after a couple of years of doing this my thoughts and conclusions to help my 2-Meter efforts are:

1.   It is all about distance. Shorter distances equate to a higher MUF. Long distances on FMBC are nice, but don’t result in Es openings on 2-Meters.

2.   Instead of moving up the band to determine a higher MUF, monitor a narrow range and observe paths becoming shorter to indicate a rising MUF. Anything less than 700 miles should be considered as an extremely high MUF.

3.   I want to develop a method to measure amplitude of an intensifying Es opening or a peaked and declining one (new project for the future...thank you BR in AZ)

It has been fun the last 3 years doing this. The investment of my $17 RTL-SDR and a $70 Log-Periodic was well worth the results in the end.  

I also admit that at times doing this activity tended to draw my attention away from the Ham activities. I am a Ham first. This activity was to help supplement my pursuit of a new VUCC on 2-Meters.

I have already come up with plans to improve the operation next year. Tweaking is always a necessity. I know to do this better, I need to make improvements. 

Not sure what next year holds. I always hope to share with you all the fun I have doing this.

73 Art Jackson KA5DWI/7