I guess I have a weak will.
In November 2015, I said goodbye to 14 years of propagation
reporting and analysis with the PropNET group. I was a bit stubborn and due to
other things going on in retirement, I did not care to upgrade or replace my
desktop computers in order to operate the new version of software. I like using
my older equipment for fun stuff like Ham Radio and put the newer technology to
use such as typing and posting this paper. I also do not care to use laptops
for this either.
The analysis showed that Cycle 24 had exponentially lessened
Es activity during the Spring/Summer season.
The good thing I thought was that the decline of solar activity should
result in improved Es conditions for 2016.
During the spring and summer of 2015, I had experienced some nice 6
Meter Es (118 grid squares worked) and looked forward to what the 2016 season
held.
In December 2015, I played in a few contests and had a great
time working the bands, particularly 10-Meters. Cycle 24 was going out with a
bang and was still pretty active. I couldn’t help myself and fired up the old
Dell desktop on 10 Meter WSPR (Weak Signal Propagation Reporter) to see if the
band was open. After a couple of weeks
pulling in some nice Trans-Atlantic and Pacific DX, I put the old Yaesu HF rig (FT-747GX)
back in line, set to one-half a watt to see who could hear me.
From January
thru April I pulled in WSPR signals and was also heard throughout the world. I
received some nice emails from Hams copying my signal and/or me copying theirs.
The old XP computer worked like a charm. No issues at all with memory or
crashes. The WSPRNET website is another issue. I never was impressed with it.
There were constant connection timeout issues that still exist today. Where is
Dave when you need him?
I decided that despite the Website issues, to operate on
10-Meter WSPR as I had in my early days on PropNET to see if Es conditions were
improving since the decline of Cycle 24. Also, I wanted to see if a different
propagation reporting system would show similar results. I took a relaxed
approach this year. I operated only when I was nearby. It was infrequently left
on all night.
If you already know me, you can skip this next section.
Background:
1. Amateur Radio Operator since 1979. Have carried the same call since issued.
Worked all states, all continents and well over 200 DXCC entities on 10-Meters.
2. TV/FM/VHF/UHF/Utility DXer and CB’er since the early 1970’s. MWBC and SW
DX’er since the early to mid-1960’s.
3. Active 2, 6 & .70 Meter weak signal. 540+ 6M, 200+ 2M, 40+ .70M grid
squares. 60+ DXCC on 6M and one-half of the 2-Meter N. American DX record for
Tropo-Overland (9/2003). All activity
from near Fort Worth, Texas (EM12).
4. Retired in June 2014 and moved to near Prescott Arizona (DM34un) and now
working on new VUCC’s, DXCC and WAS.
5. Participated in PropNET from 2004 to 2015.
Wrote 7 annual seasonal and 5 cumulative year analyses on Spring/Summer
10-Meter Es. Published 2 Papers for the annual
proceedings of the Central States VHF Society Conference. Also wrote papers on
other special events.
Operating WSPR 2016:
1. Rig: Yaesu FT-747GX. Power output set to 2 watts for the Spring and Summer.
2. Computer and Interface: Very old Dell Dimension 2.1 GHz XP Desktop and West
Mountain RigBlaster with a Serial interface. Computer was dedicated to WSPR operation,
Telnet and Weak-Signal or Contest logging. No other programs were used to limit CPU and
memory resources.
3. Antennas: Primary – 42 year old 3 Element Yagi. My original CB Yagi (Antenna
Specialists Hustler) pointed generally east, but pointed in other directions
when working 6-Meter openings. Secondary – 35 year old Cushcraft ATV-3 Vertical
nestled between 2 Blue Spruce trees. The antenna was used whenever monsoon
storms were forecasted or within the area.
4. Operating Setup – Whenever on, transmitted a 2-minute long WSPR packet
either 18 or 20 minutes apart. Software was set to transmit at 10% (10 2-minute
transmissions every 3 hours, listening 160 minutes during that time). I operated
on average about 11 hours each day from morning to early evening.
Data:
1. All measurements and charts are derived from my reception of 10-Meter WSPR packets. Extracted from the
ALL_WSPR.txt file and imported into and compiled from an Excel spreadsheet.
2. The database from WSPRNET was NOT used due to unreliability of the website
to acquire propagation reports.
3. Any reception considered ground wave or Trans-Equatorial was removed from
this analysis.
Numbers:
1. Operating Dates – From April 29 through August 28, 2016 (122 days)
2. WSPR Packet receptions - 2,543
3. My WSPR Transmissions – 3,941
4. Shortest reception – N7NEV DM43 103 miles Es Backscatter, N6RY DM13 281
miles Single Hop Es
5. Longest reception – WP3D FK68 2,979 miles Multi-Hop Es (F2 MUF was too low)
6. Most active day – July 12 with 154 captures.
7. Least active day – 16 recorded days without activity.
8. Distance – Average capture length 1,175 miles, Median distance approximately
1,050 miles.
9. First capture – KD6RF EM22 4/29 @ 16:34 UTC (9:34 AM PDT Time), Last Capture
– W1VR 8/24 @ 01:50 UTC (8/23 6:50 PM PDT)
10. Calls captured – 96, Grid Squares captured – 69
I was optimistic that we would finally start getting more Es
activity. All the signs were there for a deserved recovery. Or so I thought.
Daily WSPR Captures During the Season
First observation was that the Es season had no early indications it was
beginning. Usually there are short openings the second, third and fourth weeks
of April. These did not appear. Even in high solar activity years openings
being a probable linking of Es and F2 will show up. No evidence of much of that
this season.
Second observation was there were very distinctive quiet periods for nearly 5
periods until the summer solstice. Each active period was a little better than
the previous, but each lull was very quiet.
Between the solstice and Independence Day was horrible.
Third observation was once we passed the Fourth of July, something turned the Es
switch on and we enjoyed a very good end of the season. The period around the
Perseid meteor shower was also very good.
Once the meteor shower was over, the season came to an abrupt end on August 25.
The polynomial trend line of the lowest order showed that
the season peaked on July 5, highest order on July 13. These are the latest
dates I have observed. Generally it was no higher than June 28. The median WSPR capture (the one in the
middle) was on July 11. My median WSPR transmission was on June 22.
Overall I felt this was unusual for a poor season occurring
during a declining Solar Cycle.
Hourly Activity
Spring/Summer Es
With the Es season being a little off kilter, I thought that
the hourly figures might be off as well. Wrong.
The hourly progression was precisely what has been experienced in most years.
The trend is called a dual peaked diurnal pattern. Also, most years it is much
more active in the mid to late morning hours, starts to decline around noon,
then rises again as sunset is approached. Once the sun sets, activity declines
sharply. Missing this season was any hint of twilight activity. The only
difference was that in Texas, the second peak was proportionally higher. I
might go back to my PropNET data and see if the left coast trends similar.
The median WSPR capture this season was 1,026 miles, so I distributed the hourly captures at the next mileage capture 1,079 miles.
For both distance segments, the dual peaked diurnal was evident. More so for the longer half segment for captures. One of the benefits of being located on the west or east coast is a large amount of multi-hop Es. At times it outnumbered single hop paths.
As noted, the 1,000 to 1,250 segment is the most active and is the optimum
distance for single hop Es. Many of the other 250 mile segments were well
represented.
During the season, I captured about everyone in the United States that transmitted. Likewise, most that were listening heard my signal. Active participants followed population in most cases. The number of active WSPR participants was impressive, but only a few were active continuously.
Thank you to those that were.
As the Es Season improved, the average distance tended to trend upward. On the
most active days average distance was higher thanks to Double-Hop (Multi).
Directional
The 90 Degree segments are north, east, south and west. Almost 90 % of all
activity does come from the east here in Arizona. Activity to the north and west was always an
indication of more intense Es activity.
Narrowing the angle to 60 and 45 degrees, the concentration of activity is the Northeast to the Southeast. The more southern
Es was central and south Texas and Florida.
Coverage During the
Season
The following maps show both 10-Meter WSPR stations that I captured or
those who captured my 2 watt signal.
The first active day of the Es Season, May 10. It included Es to Hawaii.
June 14 was the best day prior to the Summer Solstice. Just after the June VHF
Contest. There was only one more active day until the first week of July.
July 5. After an extended lull, Es became more active.
July 12 was the most active day of the Es Season. It was active on 6 Meters
this day, but failed to reach 2-Meters.
July 20
July 30
The season was fairly active throughout July into August.
The last high-activity day was August 9. Once the Perseid Meteor Shower was
over, activity steadily declined.
Summary
Expecting a much improved season from the past few years was not the case.
There were occasional signs that Es conditions were on the upswing. In the
stratosphere, Noctilucent Clouds reappeared in the Northern latitudes. The
first weekend in June, a nice European opening occurred on 6-Meters as far west
as southern Arizona. I worked 106 grid squares (down 10%) on 6-Meters and my
best worked DX was Maine, Dominican Republic and copying Alaska on JT65. The difference appeared to be periods that
the bands were void of activity.
I still believe that our declining solar cycle is still too
active and not quiet enough yet to provide long period high quality Es
conditions.
Solar Conditions
2009 and 2010 were excellent years for Es conditions.
6-Meter Trans-Atlantic, short & longer path 2-Meter opportunities and the
best conditions occurring around the Summer Solstice.
A comparison between 2009
& 2010 to 2015 & 2016
Solar Flux
Between Solar Cycles 23 and 24, little movement in daily values occurred . In
2014 and 2015, values cycled very close to the rotation of the Sun. Notable in 2016, was that Solar Flux closely
reached its lowest possible levels.
Solar A Indices
The A indices show geomagnetic activity. On several occasions the past 2 years this
activity was high enough to produce Aurora. It was non-existent in 2009 and 2010.
The general amount of high activity still is putting a lid
on Es. I still remain optimistic that a
less active sun will produce much better results for Spring/Summer Es.
I hope to be available next year and do this again.
73 Art Jackson KA5DWI/7 near Prescott Arizona
2016 10-Meter WSPR Honor RollThe following Hamradio operators accounted for 80% of the season's captures:
| Call |
Grid Sq |
Catches |
| KD6RF |
EM22 |
520 |
| W1VR |
EL98 |
400 |
| KC0TKS |
EM38 |
368 |
| AE5HO |
EM13 |
129 |
| N5GG |
EM13 |
115 |
| W6LVP |
DM04 |
96 |
| KB2SVD |
FN20 |
81 |
| N0AN |
EN22 |
78 |
| N5HJC |
DM93 |
59 |
| AE5BW |
DM75 |
53 |
| AE0MT |
EN34 |
47 |
| W3PM |
EM64 |
38 |
| N5ZKK |
EM00 |
31 |
| AE7U |
CN87 |
30 |
The following Hamradio operators accounted for the remaining 20%:
| Call |
Catches |
| KR6ZY |
27 |
| N3XKB |
26 |
| KA7OEI |
24 |
| KI4ENY |
24 |
| W0JP |
23 |
| N7GLS |
22 |
| K4RJD |
21 |
| K7OFT |
20 |
| K9AN |
19 |
| KH6RD |
19 |
| KK4LMG |
16 |
| KC2PRB |
15 |
| WD5EAA |
14 |
| N0CXX |
13 |
| KM4UYE |
11 |
| K5DRU |
10 |
| KB0FHF |
10 |
| W4HFZ |
10 |
| VA7MM |
9 |
| W5GNB |
9 |
| N9PBD |
8 |
| K6EME |
7 |
| N6RY |
7 |
| NK7Z |
7 |
| W4GO |
7 |
| K8TK |
6 |
| KC1BTV |
6 |
| WB1FIG |
6 |
| K6WKX |
5 |
| KC9NBV |
5 |
| AK4T |
4 |
| KD4YDD |
4 |
| KK1D |
4 |
| N2NOM |
4 |
| ND6M |
4 |
| W1QG |
4 |
| W6NIR |
4 |
| W9MDO |
4 |
| K5NAN |
3 |
| KG5HYP |
3 |
| N7NEV |
3 |
| AB9TX |
2 |
| AE2EA |
2 |
| AE7OA |
2 |
| AF7HL |
2 |
| KF5PZW |
2 |
| KJ4RWD |
2 |
| KK6WVH |
2 |
| N6KOG |
2 |
| W5CGC |
2 |
| WD4EYI |
2 |
| WV0Q |
2 |
| AA5JD |
1 |
| AC0WN |
1 |
| AF5ES |
1 |
| AI6KG |
1 |
| K3FHP |
1 |
| K4PRA |
1 |
| K5GIL |
1 |
| K5PED |
1 |
| K5RKS |
1 |
| K7IP |
1 |
| KD2CPT |
1 |
| KD6JWK |
1 |
| KF2AT |
1 |
| KK7JV |
1 |
| N2NXZ |
1 |
| N4AU |
1 |
| N5IRC |
1 |
| N5RGV |
1 |
| N7NEI |
1 |
| NF4E |
1 |
| NV0O |
1 |
| W3CSW |
1 |
| W8AC |
1 |
| WA7NWP |
1 |
| WA9EIC |
1 |
| WB2TQE |
1 |
| WB4RFQ |
1 |
| WJ5FF |
1 |
| WP3D |
1 |
09/29/2016
10/03/2016
10/04/2016
